Weekly Update – 30th January 2023
Stock Take
In Chinese legend, the Jade Emperor challenged all the animals in his kingdom to a “Great Race”. The rabbit got a head start and took an early lead, but after tiring and stopping for a nap, was overtaken and beaten.
After last year’s disappointing returns, investors will be hoping that the legend does not portend the outlook for markets. The Year of the Rabbit is, after all, supposed to bring stability and a steady path to success.
Global equity markets have certainly made a strong start to the year, and registered their third weekly gain in four. Trading conditions were quiet though, with many Asian markets closed for the Lunar New Year celebrations and investors elsewhere awaiting the outcome of central bank meetings on both sides on the Atlantic in the week to come.
In the US, following its recent announcement of 10,000 job losses – nearly 5% of its workforce – bellwether Microsoft kicked off the start of the tech earnings season with better-than-expected fourth quarter results. However, a downbeat outlook for the current quarter disappointed investors. Demand for its cloud services fell noticeably in December as customers grew more cautious in the face of the economic slowdown.
Meta, Alphabet, Amazon and Apple are scheduled to release results this week. Tech stocks drove the bull market in growth stocks during the pandemic, but the turnaround in fortunes saw the tech-heavy Nasdaq index suffer its worst year since 2008, and its first four-quarter slump since the dot-com crash.
Across the wider S&P 500, two-thirds of companies reporting fourth-quarter earnings have so far posted better-than-expected results, while warning of a tough year ahead. Data showed that US business activity contracted for a seventh straight month. However, figures showed that contraction in the manufacturing and services sector was shallower than expected in the first few weeks of the year.
Results both in the US and Europe will help guide investors about whether the renewed optimism about the economy that has buoyed equities in recent weeks is grounded in reality.
On Thursday came news that US economic growth held up better than expected in the fourth quarter. Despite being dragged down by higher borrowing costs and the rising cost of living, the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.9% in the final quarter of 2022.
Although the jobs market has held up, tech firms SAP and IBM were among others announcing major redundancies, following on the heels of the tech giants in the previous week. But global stock markets rallied on hopes that a resilient US economy and slowing inflation would enable the Federal Reserve to engineer the desired soft landing. The MSCI World Index hit a five-month high.
A widely watched survey by Consensus Economics forecast that the eurozone will avoid recession this year, boosted by lower energy prices, bumper government support, and the earlier than anticipated re-opening of China’s economy. Just last month, the same survey predicted the bloc would plunge into recession, illustrating the sharp turnaround in global economic sentiment.
In a blow to Chancellor Jeremy Hunt ahead of his March Budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility warned that it had overestimated prospects for medium-term growth in the economy and intends to revise down its forecasts. The downgrade would wipe out the government’s £9.2 billion headroom from the Autumn Statement and may require the chancellor to make more savings in March to keep within his fiscal rules to reduce debt.
Official figures showed that government borrowing shot up to record levels last month, driven by support for energy bills and the impact of higher inflation on the government’s debt repayments. In a speech outlining plans to grow the UK economy, the chancellor warned that tax cuts in the Budget were unlikely. The economic challenges were underlined by news that UK car production had collapsed to its lowest level for 66 years.
Ahead of this Thursday’s Bank of England rate-setting meeting, markets are anticipating a hike of 50 basis points, taking the base rate to 4%. However, Mark Dowding of BlueBay is cautious. “Although this would certainly be justified by inflation and wage data, we are concerned at spreading signs of economic weakness. Meanwhile, house prices are looking very vulnerable and we think that it will be very difficult for UK rates to exceed a 4% ceiling without the risk of crashing the UK housing market and the UK economy along with it.”
Wealth Check
Some days you can’t imagine ever retiring. Other days, it can’t come soon enough. But there will be a day when you want to put work behind you, and live life differently. And a rewarding, comfortable retirement is something that takes careful financial planning.
These days, retirement planning is about making sure you’ve got plenty of options to live later-life the way you want to, not the way your retirement income means you have to.
That’s why it really pays to use your tax allowances and reliefs each year to boost your pension pot, as you get closer to that retirement party.
Saving enough in a tax-efficient way helps to buy you plenty of life choices.
The first step is to take a good look at your current financial landscape, and make sure your money and assets are working as tax-efficiently as possible.
Feeling confident that you’ll be able to achieve the retirement you imagine is all about planning ahead to make sure you’ve got the retirement income to make it happen.
If you’re in the UK, you’ll almost certainly have ISAs and pensions as one of your main sources of income in retirement. Since both of them can help shelter you from tax on dividends, interest, and profits, using them well can help make your money go much further.
One of the best ways to boost your pension pot before tax-year end is to use your full pension annual allowance if you can. In 2022-23, this is still 100% of your salary or £40,000 – whichever is lower. If you can, use your full £20,000 tax-efficient ISA allowance, too.
The turbulence of the past couple of years has made many people rethink their long-term life plans -in particular, when they retire, and how they want to spend their retirement.
“There are lots of ways to achieve what you want, and an adviser will help you understand the most tax-efficient way of getting there, such as the decisions you need to make, the allowances you can use, and the best order in which to use them,” Clark says.
The levels and bases of taxation, and reliefs from taxation, can change at any time and are generally dependent on individual circumstances.
In The Picture
When looking at the investment universe, different regions can have different opportunities and challenges, and will perform differently over time. The below chart shows how different regions have contributed to world GDP growth year-on-year, and how they are forecast to do so in coming years.

The Last Word
“It is right that we advanced bit by bit, that is the only principle that can work in such dangerous conditions also for Europe.”
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on the decision to begin sending German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine